Seven Senate toss-ups could decide which party controls the chamber
Control of the Senate is likely to turn on a handful of competitive races. Republicans hold a 53-47 edge, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Late polls and a prediction market favor Democrats, while some analysts warn recent Trump-era polling has understated Republican strength.
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The map
The Independent highlighted eight Senate races to watch as Democrats try to erase a Republican majority; Just the News and other roundups focus on the tightest contests that could decide control. Republicans enter Election Day with 53 seats to 47 for Democrats and independents who caucus with them, so Democrats must net four seats for a majority, The Independent reported.
The seven toss-ups
The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, Newsweek and Just the News reported. All but Michigan are held by Republicans, Newsweek reported. The matchups, as Newsweek and The Independent described them:
- **Alaska:** Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan vs. Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola - **Iowa:** Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson vs. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek - **Kansas:** Republican Sen. Roger Marshall vs. Democrat Adam Hamilton - **Maine:** Republican Sen. Susan Collins vs. Democrat Troy Jackson, former president of the Maine Senate - **Michigan (open, held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters):** Democrat Abdul El-Sayed vs. Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers - **Ohio:** Republican Sen. Jon Husted vs. Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown - **Texas:** Republican Ken Paxton vs. Democrat James Talarico
Sabato's Crystal Ball rates Alaska and Michigan as Leans Democratic rather than toss-ups, Newsweek reported.
Late polls and markets
A final New York Times/Siena poll showed Democrats leading or tied across key battlegrounds, including once-reliable Republican states such as Kansas and Texas, according to Daily Mail and Raw Story. On the prediction market Kalshi, traders on Monday put the chance of Democratic Senate control at about 74 percent, CNBC reported. Associated Press separately covered Alaska's hard-fought Senate race in the final stretch.
Caveats from the right and center
CNN data analyst Harry Enten cautioned that in recent cycles Republicans have beaten final Senate polling averages in close races in Trump states by about four points on average in those races, The Daily Wire reported. Newsweek also looked at how polling leaders in past toss-up Senate races have sometimes lost.